As many of you know, in my previous life I walked the floors of the NYSE and had 10 second hot dog lunches on the corner of Broad St. and Wall St. Although my singular focus is the growth of Cantina Light Pictures, I keep a prudent eye on what's happening with all the events going on in our markets. Friends have called me in recent days asking for my opinion on what's going on, which I respond, "what's your broker saying?" Apparently, not enough to comfort the issues these individuals have.
Here's the skinny from where I sit. Quick touch up on what happened yesterday and a synapses on what I think may go on today.
The markets yesterday fooled many at the beginning. As expected, we experienced heavy trading (frenzied is the more likely term) at the open. Trading was so fierce that some trades weren't reported. This led the ticker tape to read that we were down 98 points. When all the trades had caught up and recorded into the systems it showed we were actually down over 300 points. At the beginning some were looking at being down 98 points okay considering the bad news from the weekend. When all the trades caught up and they saw what we were really down over 300 we experienced what happens many times, a rally off the lows. The rally was short lived, however, as the largeness of the bad news lingered. We attempted another rally as rumors circulated that there were "talks" with Warren Buffet.
The markets tone had turned negative and selling increased as we pierced the morning lows with several attempts at a rally that didn't amount to anything.
We closed below the July 15th intra day lows and all the indices close at their bottoms for that same date.
Net/net it was a very nasty day yesterday. There was no capitulation as was the fear and what some might hoped.
What to expect today.
The Fed meets today and what was considered to be a non event is now one that renders much attention. What will the Fed do? Will they cut rates to calm things down? If so, could that arouse concerns of a zero interest rate policy used by Japan in years past? Would it show that the Fed is in panic mode? In any case the last few Fed cuts had almost no positive effect. We'll wait and see.
AIG is of course a significant topic being discussed by analyst and Main St alike. First, what are analyst saying? Essentially what they are saying is that a private sector bailout deal is dead. In other words no help from large institutions from the likes of BofA, Wells, Citibank, and/or other financial houses. It makes all the sense in the world if you think about it. Why would any of these institutions attempt to bail AIG out when they can buy their assets up in bankruptcy court. Another thing, these institutions are direct benficiaries of an AIG bankruptcy as all the annuity and such assets will migrate towards them (happening as we speak). Lastly, do they have enough in reserves to put together $70 billion? Sure they do! But is it prudent?
As a result, word has it that a bridge loan is being discussed with the FED for AIG. Only issue is that the Fed has publicly said that they will not step in with regards to situations like this again.
Interestingly, they didn't help out Lehman Bros. the 4th largest investment bank in the world.
Something that has to be considered is the possibility of assets moving away from Wall St. Let's face it, people are concerned and want to know what to do. They're not hearing from their brokers (more than likely due to the fact their broker doesn't know what to do either) and the constant bad news coming out by watching TV about our financial markets is adding fuel to the fire. Basically, this might be the conversation in homes. "Hey Honey I've been thinking, most of Wall Streets brilliant minds along with the US government have tried to solve this big problem at least 5 times now. Each time they've failed. Maybe we should reconsider where our assets should be placed."
In Summary
All we can hope for is massive capitulation. People throwing in the towel with a mid day, heavy volume reversal to take us back into blue skies....for the time being. It's highly unlikely. It's going to be a rough ride where peoples souls will be tried and tested. Stay tuned....Sam
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